Forecasting and management of gross domestic product

Estimation of Gross Domestic Product of Iran (1906-1935)

This paper provides a brief technical survey of the historical national accounts of Iran. Gaining access to longer-term time series in compliance with concepts, classifications and standards comparable to the present one help fulfill quantitative studies in the area of business cycles. Despite the shortage of reliable, standardized and classified information, the methodology applied in thi...

Comparison of Gross Domestic Product Forecasts before and after the Covid-19

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) publish annual reports on the world economic outlook. This study compared the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of different countries by these 2 institutions, before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. The countries were selected from the 6 regions of Africa, the Americas, the Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Western O...

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. T...

Vector Autoregressive Model Selection: Gross Domestic Product and Europe Oil Prices Data Modelling

 We consider the problem of model selection in vector autoregressive model with Normal innovation. Tests such as Vuong's and Cox's tests are provided for order and model selection, i.e. for selecting the order and a suitable subset of regressors, in vector autoregressive model. We propose a test as a modified log-likelihood ratio test for selecting subsets of regressors. The Europe oil prices, ...

An Intervention Analysis Of The Behavior Of The Iranian Real Gross Domestic Product: 1959-2001